{"id":2641,"date":"2019-01-18T21:55:22","date_gmt":"2019-01-18T21:55:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/?p=2641"},"modified":"2023-06-12T17:28:48","modified_gmt":"2023-06-12T17:28:48","slug":"tipo-de-cambio-y-hamburguesas-2019-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/r\/tipo-de-cambio-y-hamburguesas-2019-i\/","title":{"rendered":"Tipo de cambio, hamburguesas y ciencia de datos (2019-I)."},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>C\u00f3mo se calcula el \u00edndice big mac.<\/h2>\n<p>El \u00edndice Big Mac es un indicador (<em>s\u00f3lo eso!<\/em>) de las desviaciones que tienen los tipos de cambio que vemos en el mercado respecto del que &#8220;deber\u00edamos&#8221; ver, seg\u00fan el valor real de las mercanc\u00edas.&nbsp;Este \u00edndice se publica con regularidad en <strong>The Economist, <\/strong>quienes practican este c\u00e1lculo desde hace muchos a\u00f1os<strong>. <\/strong>Por cierto, desde Noviembre de 2018 distribuyen los datos en un Jupiter Notebook. Si no usas Anaconda (<em>plataforma de ciencia de datos para Python, que con algunas adaptaciones puede usar R<\/em>), puedes usar esta versi\u00f3n funcional en RStudio (descargar: <a  data-e-Disable-Page-Transition=\"true\" class=\"download-link\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/download\/2681\/?tmstv=1781089089\" rel=\"nofollow\" id=\"download-link-2681\" data-redirect=\"false\" >\n\tBigMacRStudio2019-1<\/a>\n). Modifiqu\u00e9 algunas l\u00edneas al formato de The Economist para hacerlo funcional en RStudio + R (incluida la versi\u00f3n m\u00e1s reciente 3.5.1).<strong>&nbsp;El \u00edndice se calcula bajo el siguiente razonamiento:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Asumiremos&nbsp;que las monedas (en el caso de M\u00e9xico:&nbsp;<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">PESOS<\/span> y <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">D\u00d3LARES<\/span>) est\u00e1n en equilibrio en relaci\u00f3n a la paridad del poder adquisitivo (PPA). Es decir, en consideraci\u00f3n del&nbsp;tipo de cambio, un bien (en este caso la <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">BigMac<\/span>) puede comprarse por el mismo precio en distintos mercados (en este caso distintos pa\u00edses).<br><script src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\" async=\"\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: none !important; text-align: center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9033709093144000\" data-ad-slot=\"7741409798\"><\/ins><br><script><br \/>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});<br \/>\n<\/script><\/p>\n<p>&#8212; Si la&nbsp;hamburguesa <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">BigMac<\/span> en M\u00e9xico cuesta <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">$49.00 PESOS<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212; Y la misma hamburguesa cuesta en Estados Unidos <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">$5.58 D\u00d3LARES<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&nbsp;Significa que $5.58 D\u00d3LARES equivalen a $49.00 PESOS.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212; Es decir, que el tipo de cambio deber\u00eda ser igual a $49.00\/$5.58, resultando en <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">8.78 PESOS POR D\u00d3LAR<\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script><br><!-- post_edate --><br><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: block;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9033709093144000\" data-ad-slot=\"4902726138\" data-ad-format=\"auto\" data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins><br><script><br \/>\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});<br \/>\n<\/script><\/p>\n<h2>El&nbsp;caso de M\u00e9xico.<\/h2>\n<p>El tipo de cambio calculado (<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">8.78 PESOS POR D\u00d3LAR<\/span><\/strong>)&nbsp;no es el tipo de cambio que&nbsp;estamos viendo en los mercados. Para hoy, el tipo de cambio estuvo alrededor de&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">19.0630<\/span><\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/dof.gob.mx\/indicadores_detalle.php?cod_tipo_indicador=158&amp;dfecha=08%2F11%2F2018&amp;hfecha=08%2F11%2F2018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ver referencia<\/a>). \u00bfQu\u00e9 significa?<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Tipo de cambio vigente: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>19.0630 PESOS POR D\u00d3LAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Tipo de cambio en PPA: <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">8.78 PESOS POR D\u00d3LAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>El tipo de cambio en los mercados es m\u00e1s alto de lo que &#8220;deber\u00eda&#8221; (solo se trata de un indicador). \u00bfQu\u00e9 tan alto?<\/p>\n<p>Diferencia = (TC en PPA &#8211; Tipo de cambio vigente) \/ (Tipo de cambio vigente)<\/p>\n<p>Es decir,<\/p>\n<p>Diferencia =&nbsp;(8.78 &#8211; 19.0630) \/ (19.0630) = -0.5394.<\/p>\n<p>En porcentaje: <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-53.94%<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Este porcentaje&nbsp;significa que el tipo de cambio que vemos en el mercado tendr\u00eda que ser <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">53.94% menor<\/span><\/strong> del que efectivamente vemos. Si aplicamos esta reducci\u00f3n al tipo de cambio vigente, alcanzar\u00edamos el tipo de cambio calculado en PPA (<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">8.78 PESOS POR D\u00d3LAR<\/span><\/strong>). Por eso se dice que el peso est\u00e1 <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">subvaluado (el mercado reconoce un valor menor del que deber\u00eda, por eso el d\u00f3lar es&nbsp;tan caro)<\/span><\/strong>. Desde luego, esto es&nbsp;solo una estimaci\u00f3n, y hay muchas consideraciones por realizar. Puedes investigar m\u00e1s en este enlace&nbsp;de quienes crearon y calculan con regularidad el \u00edndice (<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/content\/big-mac-index\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ver m\u00e1s informaci\u00f3n<\/a><\/strong><\/span>).<\/p>\n<p>Los creadores del \u00edndice pusieron a disposici\u00f3n del p\u00fablico una base de datos con muchos c\u00e1lculos&nbsp;para muchos pa\u00edses. La&nbsp;puedes descargar de aqu\u00ed en un formato distinto (m\u00e1s amigable) y consultar los datos por pa\u00eds. Seg\u00fan estos datos,&nbsp;el peso mexicano ha mostrado estar subvaluado en los \u00faltimos 18 a\u00f1os (ver imagen m\u00e1s abajo).&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Descargar&nbsp;base de datos de Excel:&nbsp;<a  data-e-Disable-Page-Transition=\"true\" class=\"download-link\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/download\/2675\/?tmstv=1781089089\" rel=\"nofollow\" id=\"download-link-2675\" data-redirect=\"false\" >\n\tbigmac2019-1<\/a>\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Ver datos en Google Sheets: <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1T14WYOcKCZDIyQOrJ2LAWUR6RlToxiPD9bPOYlAQ7oE\/edit?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ver datos<\/a>.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2654 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Rplot01.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"611\" height=\"379\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Rplot01.png 611w, https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Rplot01-300x186.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 611px) 100vw, 611px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><script src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\" async=\"\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><!-- RegularPostBottom --><br><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: none !important;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9033709093144000\" data-ad-slot=\"2196072090\" data-ad-format=\"auto\"><\/ins><br><script><br \/>\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});<br \/>\n<\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Los datos resumidos.<\/h2>\n<p>Explora los datos en Google Data Studio. Puedes explorar el reporte en esta p\u00e1gina o en este link a pantalla completa (<a href=\"https:\/\/datastudio.google.com\/open\/1r9BFAaNlZmBbvNYIua8UT1mUBW_v_362\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ver reporte<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: 0;\" src=\"https:\/\/datastudio.google.com\/embed\/reporting\/1r9BFAaNlZmBbvNYIua8UT1mUBW_v_362\/page\/X4gM\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" width=\"600\" height=\"475\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><script src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\" async=\"\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><!-- RegularPostHeader --><br><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: none !important; width: 728px; height: 90px;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9033709093144000\" data-ad-slot=\"4391345816\"><\/ins><br><script><br \/>\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});<br \/>\n<\/script><\/p>\n<p>Conoce el potencial de toda la suite de Google, obt\u00e9n una prueba gratuita de la suite; m\u00e1s informaci\u00f3n en este enlace (Google): <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/ZPXKU2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/goo.gl\/ZPXKU2<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/ZPXKU2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-267 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/google-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>C\u00f3mo se calcula el \u00edndice big mac. El \u00edndice Big Mac es un indicador (s\u00f3lo eso!) de las desviaciones que tienen los tipos de cambio que vemos en el mercado respecto del que &#8220;deber\u00edamos&#8221; ver, seg\u00fan el valor real de <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/r\/tipo-de-cambio-y-hamburguesas-2019-i\/\" class=\"read-more\">Read More &#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2654,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[74,5,69,14,10,134],"tags":[20,7,11,70],"class_list":["post-2641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dashboard","category-excel","category-finanzas","category-google-data-studio","category-google-sheets","category-r","tag-big-mac-index","tag-excel","tag-google-sheets","tag-the-economist"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tipo de cambio, hamburguesas y ciencia de datos (2019-I). - 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