{"id":1797,"date":"2018-11-09T06:06:59","date_gmt":"2018-11-09T06:06:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/?p=1797"},"modified":"2023-07-08T20:12:59","modified_gmt":"2023-07-08T20:12:59","slug":"tipo-de-cambio-y-hamburguesas-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/excel\/tipo-de-cambio-y-hamburguesas-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Tipo de cambio, hamburguesas y ciencia de datos."},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>El \u00edndice.<\/h2>\n<p>El \u00edndice Big Mac es un indicador (<em>s\u00f3lo eso!<\/em>) de las desviaciones que tienen los tipos de cambio que vemos en el mercado respecto del que &#8220;deber\u00edamos&#8221; ver, seg\u00fan el valor real de las mercanc\u00edas.&nbsp;Este \u00edndice se publica con regularidad en <strong>The Economist, <\/strong>quienes practican este c\u00e1lculo desde hace muchos a\u00f1os<strong>. <\/strong>Por cierto, ahora (Noviembre de 2018) distribuyen los datos en un Jupiter Notebook. Si no usas Anaconda (<em>plataforma de ciencia de datos para Python, que con algunas adaptaciones puede usar R<\/em>), puedes usar esta versi\u00f3n funcional en RStudio (descargar: <a  data-e-Disable-Page-Transition=\"true\" class=\"download-link\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/download\/1791\/?tmstv=1782284568\" rel=\"nofollow\" id=\"download-link-1791\" data-redirect=\"false\" >\n\tBigMacIndexRstudio<\/a>\n). Modifiqu\u00e9 algunas l\u00edneas al formato de The Economist para hacerlo funcional en RStudio + R (incluida la versi\u00f3n m\u00e1s reciente 3.5.1).<strong>&nbsp;El \u00edndice se calcula bajo el siguiente razonamiento:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Asumiremos&nbsp;que las monedas (en el caso de M\u00e9xico:&nbsp;<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">PESOS<\/span> y <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">D\u00d3LARES<\/span>) est\u00e1n en equilibrio en relaci\u00f3n a la paridad del poder adquisitivo (PPA). Es decir, en consideraci\u00f3n del&nbsp;tipo de cambio, un bien (en este caso la <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">BigMac<\/span>) puede comprarse por el mismo precio en distintos mercados (en este caso distintos pa\u00edses).<br \/>\n<script async=\"\" src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script><br \/>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: block; text-align: center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9033709093144000\" data-ad-slot=\"7741409798\"><\/ins><br \/>\n<script><br \/>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});<br \/>\n<\/script><br \/>\n&#8212; Si la&nbsp;hamburguesa <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">BigMac<\/span> en M\u00e9xico cuesta <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">$49.00 PESOS<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212; Y la misma hamburguesa cuesta en Estados Unidos <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">$5.51 D\u00d3LARES<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&nbsp;Significa que $5.51 D\u00d3LARES equivalen a $49.00 PESOS.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212; Es decir, que el tipo de cambio deber\u00eda ser igual a $49.00\/$5.51, resultando en <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">8.89 PESOS POR D\u00d3LAR<\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script><br \/>\n<!-- post_edate --><br \/>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: block;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9033709093144000\" data-ad-slot=\"4902726138\" data-ad-format=\"auto\" data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins><br \/>\n<script><br \/>\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});<br \/>\n<\/script><\/p>\n<h2>El&nbsp;caso de M\u00e9xico.<\/h2>\n<p>El tipo de cambio calculado (<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">8.89 PESOS POR D\u00d3LAR<\/span><\/strong>)&nbsp;no es el tipo de cambio que&nbsp;estamos viendo en los mercados. Para hoy, el tipo de cambio estuvo alrededor de&nbsp;<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">19.8245<\/span><\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/dof.gob.mx\/indicadores_detalle.php?cod_tipo_indicador=158&amp;dfecha=08%2F11%2F2018&amp;hfecha=08%2F11%2F2018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ver referencia<\/a>). \u00bfQu\u00e9 significa?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Tipo de cambio vigente: <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>19.8245 PESOS POR D\u00d3LAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Tipo de cambio en PPA: <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">8.89 PESOS POR D\u00d3LAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>El tipo de cambio en los mercados es m\u00e1s alto de lo que &#8220;deber\u00eda&#8221; (solo se trata de un indicador). \u00bfQu\u00e9 tan alto?<\/p>\n<p>Diferencia = (TC en PPA &#8211; Tipo de cambio vigente) \/ (Tipo de cambio vigente)<\/p>\n<p>Es decir,<\/p>\n<p>Diferencia =&nbsp;(8.89 &#8211; 19.8245) \/ (19.8245) = -0.5515.<\/p>\n<p>En porcentaje: <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-55.15%<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Este porcentaje&nbsp;significa que el tipo de cambio que vemos en el mercado tendr\u00eda que ser <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">55.15% menor<\/span><\/strong> del que efectivamente vemos. Si aplicamos esta reducci\u00f3n al tipo de cambio vigente, alcanzar\u00edamos el tipo de cambio calculado en PPA (<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">8.89&nbsp;PESOS POR D\u00d3LAR<\/span><\/strong>). Por eso se dice que el peso est\u00e1 <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">subvaluado (el mercado reconoce un valor menor del que deber\u00eda, por eso el d\u00f3lar es&nbsp;tan caro)<\/span><\/strong>. Desde luego, esto es&nbsp;solo una estimaci\u00f3n, y hay muchas consideraciones por realizar. Puedes investigar m\u00e1s en este enlace&nbsp;de quienes crearon y calculan con regularidad el \u00edndice (<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #ff0000;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/content\/big-mac-index\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ver m\u00e1s informaci\u00f3n<\/a><\/strong><\/span>).<\/p>\n<p>Los creadores del \u00edndice pusieron a disposici\u00f3n del p\u00fablico una base de datos con muchos c\u00e1lculos&nbsp;para muchos pa\u00edses. La&nbsp;puedes descargar de aqu\u00ed en un formato distinto (m\u00e1s amigable) y consultar los datos por pa\u00eds. Seg\u00fan estos datos,&nbsp;el peso mexicano ha mostrado estar subvaluado en los \u00faltimos 17 a\u00f1os (ver imagen m\u00e1s abajo). Por cierto, el dato para julio de 2018 es ligeramente distinto debido a que <em>The Economist<\/em> tom\u00f3 de referencia un tipo de cambio distinto.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Descargar&nbsp;base de datos de Excel:&nbsp;<a  data-e-Disable-Page-Transition=\"true\" class=\"download-link\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/download\/1804\/?tmstv=1782284568\" rel=\"nofollow\" id=\"download-link-1804\" data-redirect=\"false\" >\n\tBigMacDB072018<\/a>\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Ver datos en Google Sheets: <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1T14WYOcKCZDIyQOrJ2LAWUR6RlToxiPD9bPOYlAQ7oE\/edit?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ver datos<\/a>.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1802\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/updateBigMac.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"283\" height=\"612\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/updateBigMac.png 283w, https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/updateBigMac-139x300.png 139w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 283px) 100vw, 283px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script><br \/>\n<!-- RegularPostBottom --><br \/>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: block;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9033709093144000\" data-ad-slot=\"2196072090\" data-ad-format=\"auto\"><\/ins><br \/>\n<script><br \/>\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});<br \/>\n<\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Los datos resumidos.<\/h2>\n<p>Explora los datos en Google Data Studio. Puedes explorar el reporte en esta p\u00e1gina o en este link a pantalla completa (<a href=\"https:\/\/datastudio.google.com\/open\/1r9BFAaNlZmBbvNYIua8UT1mUBW_v_362\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ver reporte<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: 0;\" src=\"https:\/\/datastudio.google.com\/embed\/reporting\/1r9BFAaNlZmBbvNYIua8UT1mUBW_v_362\/page\/X4gM\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" width=\"600\" height=\"475\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script><br \/>\n<!-- RegularPostHeader --><br \/>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 728px; height: 90px;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-9033709093144000\" data-ad-slot=\"4391345816\"><\/ins><br \/>\n<script><br \/>\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});<br \/>\n<\/script><br \/>\nConoce el potencial de toda la suite de Google, obt\u00e9n una prueba gratuita de la suite; m\u00e1s informaci\u00f3n en este enlace <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/ZPXKU2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/goo.gl\/ZPXKU2<\/a> (Google).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/ZPXKU2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-267 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/google-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El \u00edndice. El \u00edndice Big Mac es un indicador (s\u00f3lo eso!) de las desviaciones que tienen los tipos de cambio que vemos en el mercado respecto del que &#8220;deber\u00edamos&#8221; ver, seg\u00fan el valor real de las mercanc\u00edas.&nbsp;Este \u00edndice se publica <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fditf.com\/bi\/excel\/tipo-de-cambio-y-hamburguesas-2\/\" class=\"read-more\">Read More &#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1809,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[74,5,69,14,10,134],"tags":[20,7,11,70],"class_list":["post-1797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dashboard","category-excel","category-finanzas","category-google-data-studio","category-google-sheets","category-r","tag-big-mac-index","tag-excel","tag-google-sheets","tag-the-economist"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - 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